The core tenets of our campaign are that we are here to build community and expand what type of resistance and change is possible, without relying on those in power to do what must be done. At times, that boldness has been met with silence by those who could decide to close this coal-fired power plant for good. Meanwhile, as a campaign we have built and sustained collective power. Now, decision makers are taking us seriously and are engaging us in discussions about the coal plant. We are in conversation with multiple stakeholder groups, and Gordon Van Welie, CEO of regional grid operator ISO New England personally reached out to us a month ago.
This week, ISO New England released a draft of a study titled, “Pathways Study: Evaluation of Pathways to a Future Grid.” In the report, the Analysis Group delivered an evaluation of policy options that will result in an electricity grid that can support the delivery of energy in ways that are aligned with existing state energy policies. The study looks at potential economic and regulatory practices for moving New England's electricity grid away from fossil fuels, while accounting for our current energy resource mix and potential to expand renewable sources.
Reading through this study, we were frustrated by its focus on conservative market-based solutions to the violence of climate change. Yet deep within the 159 pages, we found something fascinating: this study assumes that all the region’s coal resources will retire by June 1, 2025. The section of the study that outlines the researchers’ assumptions states:
“We assume the following changes to the resource fleet:
entry by resources that cleared capacity in the 2024-2025 Forward Capacity Auction (“FCA 15”),
scheduled retirements, reflecting the ISO-NE list of retirements as well as other publicly announced retirements,
retirement of all coal resources in the region by June 1, 2025, and
renewable entry from “baseline state policies,” reflecting announced contracts, state legislated procurements, and state legislated goals, which we discuss in more detail in Section II.D.” (Schatzki et al. 25)
The study addresses what the energy resources on our electric grid will look like, and the authors note, “These data are then adjusted for other expected generation resource additions and known retirements. Additionally, we assume the Merrimack 1 and Merrimack 2 coal plants will retire on June 1, 2025” (Schatzki et al. 122). Assuming that coal will be off grid by June 2025 allows ISO New England to fulfill the existing forward capacity contract, since the Merrimack Generating Station is already funded through June 2025. However, for this study’s core assumptions to be accurate, Merrimack Station in Bow, NH must not qualify for forward capacity payments in the 2022 auction.
While this is not an official retirement announcement, the authors of this study clearly expect that the Merrimack Station will retire by June 1, 2025. In other words, the ISO’s own commissioned study clearly considers future forward capacity payments to the Merrimack Station to be out of line with status quo policies, let alone with necessary future solutions and recommended changes.
Despite generally proposing slow, unimaginative, and otherwise moderate grid transition measures, this study considers it a no-brainer that ISO New England will take coal off the grid as soon as possible. If ISO New England grants the Merrimack Station forward capacity payments in the 2022 auction, that would undermine the conclusions of their study and call into question their commitment to comply with existing state energy policies.
(Figure: Schatzki et al. 45. This stacked bar chart depicts the generation capacity of various energy sources over the course of a number of years (‘21 -’39). Coal, represented by the color black, appears as a small wedge that tapers out of generation capacity by mid-2024. You can spot it just below the orange nuclear section.)
A key demand for our campaign is the total shutdown of the Merrimack Station, and this study assumes that result. While we certainly have bigger dreams than this study does, we are actively changing the equation for coal in the region.
We’ve long known that coal is a dead industry. This study suggests that decision makers in New England are realizing this, too. We dream of a day when all of our campaign demands are assumptions in official studies, when community building and justice are the constant variables we use to shape our world. As part of that dream, we will keep pushing this issue beyond capitalist, market-based policy recommendations and uninspired solutions. In the meantime, we will keep a vigilant eye on ISO New England as we continue to participate in ongoing direct resistance to Merrimack Station and other fossil fuels.
